Category: John Rham

PGA Tour: 2023 Season Preview

**Scottie and Rory: Ready to resume battle in 2023**

Scottie Scheffler had a break-out season in 2022 with his win at The Masters, 3 regular tour victories and 6 more top 10 finishes—capping it off with PGA Tour Player of the Year.

And with 3 Tour wins and a Top 10 at all four majors, including runner up at The Masters, 3^rd at the Open Championship, and a T5 at the US Open, Rory McIlroy gave Scheffler a run for his money—adding a huge cherry on top with his FedEx Cup victory.

The 2023 season promises even more excitement, as Jon Rahm has his game ramped up to full power for an all-out assault on the majors, and Justin Thomas, Collen Morikawa, Patrick Cantley and Tony Finau appear to be primed and ready for a big year as well.

In addition to the deep field of top stars, there is a host of mega-talented young players looking to hit it big on Tour in ‘23, along with a few big-name Tour veterans who had dropped out of sight in recent years, but appear ready to make some noise again in 2023.

Here’s where they stand so far in the wrap-around 2022-23 season.

**Jon Rahm: Four Top 10’s and 2 wins in 2023**

Who’s Hot

Jon Rahm
After a relatively quiet 2022 season where Jon failed to record a top 10 in any of the major championships, Rahm has finished among the top 10 in all four tournaments he’s entered thus far in ‘23, including 2 wins in January (Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii, and the American Express at La Quinta).

Scottie Scheffler
Continuing his fantastic 2022 season, Scottie has made the cut in all five events he’s entered this year, including 3 top 10’s (T3 at Mayakoba, T7 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T9 at the Cadence Bank Houston Open), narrowly missing another top 10 at the American Express where he finished in a tie for 11^th.

Rory McIlroy
McIlroy has played one PGA Tour event (CJ Cup in South Carolina in October) and one DP Tour event (Hero Dubai Desert Classic last week), winning them both. The wins moved Rory past Lee Trevino into No. 20 among the GolfDay All-time Top 100 players.

Max Homa
Max recorded 2 wins in 2022 and has added 2 more thus far in the ’23 season (The Fortinet Championship in September and The Farmers last week at Torrey Pines. Homa has made the cut in all 5 of the events he’s played thus far, finishing among the top 10 in 4 of them. At 32 years old, Max is in his prime and it should not come as a surprise if he adds a major championship to the to 6 Tour wins that he has recorded since 2018.

Tony Finau
Coming off a terrific 2022 season where Tony notched 2 wins (back-to-back at the 3M Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July) with 5 additional top 10’s, Finau is off to a fast start in 2023 masking the cut in 4 of 5 events with 3 top 10’s. This may be the year that Tony brings his power game to bear at a major championship.

**Collen Morikawa: 2 time major winner**

Collin Morikawa
While two-time major champion Collin Morikawa failed to record a win in 2022, he still notched 8 top 10’s including a 5^th place finish at The Masters and a T5 at the US Open. The start to his 2023 season has been solid as well, making the cut in all 5 of the events he’s entered with 2 top 10’s, including a runner up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and 3^rd at The Farmers last week.

Taylor Montgomery
After 2 successful seasons on the Korn Ferry Tour, Montgomery is off to a hot start to his PGA Tour career, making the cut in all 10 of his starts in 2023 with 4 top-10’s. Taylor hits it a long way (308-yard average off the tee), and he’s ranked No. 1 in putting and No. 1 in scoring—a pretty good formula for success.

Young Guns

Sahith Theegala
In 2022, his first full season on Tour, 25-year-old Theegala made the cut in 26 of the 32 events he entered–with 5 top 10’s including a tie for runner up at the Travelers and a trip to the Tour Championship. Thus far in 2023, Sahith has made the cut in 8 of 9 events with 4 top 10’s. It’s only a matter of time before he records his first Tour win, and sooner is more likely than later.

Tom Kim
Yet another young phenom coming out of South Korean, 20-year-old Tom Kim is off to a blazing start to his PGA Tour career, making the cut in 6 of the 7 events he’s played, including a win (the Shriners Children’s Open in October) and 2 additional top 10’s. It seems almost certain that he will notch another win or two as the season progresses, and keep an eye on him at the majors as well.

**Day, Fowler and Bradley: Back on track in 2023**

Come-backs

Jason Day
After yet another dismal season in 2022 where Jason made the cut in only 12 of 19 events, Day looks like he may have things turned around. Thus far in 2023 he has made the cut in 6 of the 8 events he has played, recording 2 top 10’s (already matching his 2022 total). Jason certainly has the talent, and at 35 there should still be plenty in tank.

Rickie Fowler
Rickie is back with Butch Harmon, and the results are starting to pay off. He’s made the cut in 5 of 6 events with 2 top 10’s in ‘23, and his confidence is growing with each start (including a solid T11 with a 67 in the 3^rd round at Torrey Pines last week). That elusive major may be a big ask, but Rickie is still only 34, and there’s something about his look that tells me he’s back.

Keegan Bradley
Keegan’s game began to come back in 2022, making the cut in 19 of 25 events with 6 top 10’s. So far in 2023 Bradley has kicked it up another notch, making the cut in 5 of 6 starts with 3 top 10’s including a win at the Zozo Championship and a runner-up at The Farmers last week including a 66 in the final round on the difficult South course. At 36 years old, it would seem we have not seen the last of Keegan Bradley.

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Measuring Greatness: Jack, Tiger, and the Young Stars on Tour

**Jack and Tiger: A League of Their Own**

While Major Championships and Tour wins define a player’s legacy, making cuts and recording Top-10’s are the most revealing measurement of success in professional golf. Not surprisingly, Jack and Tiger set the high-water mark for these criteria as well, and they are the standard of comparison when looking at the current group of highly talented young stars.

In the graphic below, Jack’s numbers include the entirety of his career, through his retirement at age 65—and it is particularly impressive that his percentage of Top-10 finishes remains so much higher than any player other than Tiger, even when his twilight years on Tour are included.

Athletes peak at different ages, and unfortunately, injury also plays a significant role. For Jack, his percentage of Top-10’s actually increased throughout his 30’s (his Top-10 percentage was 71.8% on his 30^th birthday, and 74.5% when he turned 40). Tiger, on the other hand, built the bulk of his record in his 20’s, with serious physical issues beginning to impact his play almost immediately on turning 30. He lost significant portions of the 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2015 seasons, so although Tiger’s Top-10 percentage stood at 66.0% on his 30^th birthday, it fell to 60.4% when he turned 40. And then he lost the entire 2015-2016 season following another back surgery.

Current players are at different stages in their career, so the best way to view performance is by looking at percentages, rather than just the totals. As shown in the graphic below, there is a vast gulf in Top-10 percentage between Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy (No.’s 1 and 2), and Dustin Johnson (No. 3).

**Rory McIlroy and John Rahm: Separating themselves from the Field**

Jon Rahm, at 27 years old, is only just entering the peak performance years of his career, and Rory, at 33, is at the height of his ability. Collin Morikawa, 25 years old, with the same Top-10 percentage as Dustin Johnson and a significantly higher cut percentage, has virtually his entire career before him. It will be fascinating to track the progress of the current group of talented young PGA Tour stars over the next decade and more, when viewed against the eye-popping numbers that Jack and Tiger put up.

Movers

Although Scottie Scheffler has the look of a much more “seasoned” pro, he only just turned 26 on June 21. On top of his Masters victory in April, and strong performance at the U.S. Open (T2), Scottie has made the cut in 18 of the 20 events he’s played this year while recording 9 Top-10’s (including 4 wins). When The Open Championship gets underway at St. Andrews in July, it’s a pretty safe bet that Scheffler will be on the leader board come Sunday.

**Scheffler, Thomas and Spieth: Moving the Needle**

Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, boyhood rivals with 5 major championships between them, are both at the top of the list when it comes to making cuts and Top-10 percentage. Still in their 20’s, each is a lock for the World Golf Hall of Fame when the curtain comes down on their careers.

Will Zalatoris (No. 8), at 25 years old, has already recorded 6 Top-10’s in major championships. While he has yet to record his first Tour victory, his ball striking is second to none. Should Will begin to putt with more consistency, the possibilities are virtually limitless.

Players with Hall of Fame talent who have yet to reach 25 years of age include Victor Hoveland (No. 20), Sungjae Im (No. 23), and Joaquin Niemann (No. 28).

With so much talent currently on the PGA Tour, challenging the records of Jack and Tiger would seem an impossible task—but it makes for tremendous excitement week in and week out.

LIV

While LIV has picked off 7 of the Career Top 30, closer inspection reveals that the Tour hasn’t given up a whole heck of a lot. As a group, the PGA ex-pats played a total of 99 events in the 2021-2022 season, making just 66 cuts (66%) along with a grand total of 10 Top-10 Finishes (10%). Surprisingly, the star of the show is Abraham Ancer with 3 Top-10’s.

**Mickelson, Johnson and Koepka: 4 Top-10’s combined in 2022**

Perhaps it’s mostly related to age, with just one defector under 30 years old (Bryson DeChambeau). Two are soon to be 40 (Louis Oosthuizen–39 and Dustin Johnson–38), Sergio is 42, and Phil just turned 52.

Phil and Dustin have already punched their ticket to the World Golf Hall of Fame, but with only 1 major and 6 Tour wins, Sergio has become an extreme long shot (although his 22 worldwide wins give him an outside chance). Pat Reed with 1 major and 9 Tour wins, has removed himself from any consideration. Koepka, with 4 major championships, has closed out his PGA Tour career with a total of only 8 wins—so his chances of getting to the Hall are now very much in doubt.

The Saudi’s have paid a boatload of money with this venture, but the quality of their purchases have thus far been questionable to say the least.

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The PGA Tour: Changing of the Guard-Volume I

A group of young guns is emerging on the PGA Tour, flexing their muscle and exerting a powerful influence that will change the landscape of professional golf for the next decade and more. Each is seeking to etch his name in golf history, and all have the talent to do so. Currently twelve players under the age of 30 are included among the top twenty in the World Golf Rankings, and we will take a look at them all as the 2022 tour season gets under way. Can one of these mega-talented young stars approach the seemingly unattainable records of Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods? To put it in perspective, Jack Nicklaus recorded 73 tour wins in his career (30 in his twenties), with 18 major titles (7 in his twenties).: Tiger Woods has accumulated 82 wins on tour (46 in his twenties) including 15 major titles (8 in his twenties). Let’s take a look at the first three to see where they currently stand, and consider the possibilities.

John Rahm (27 years old/No. 1 in the World Rankings)

John Rahm is currently at the top of the official World Golf Rankings, and it should really not come as a surprise. With power and precision off the tee, steely nerves and singular focus, Rahm has recorded 6 PGA Tour Wins in the span of just 4 years, including a major title (2021 US Open). Born in Barrika, Spain as ‘John Rahm Rodriguez’, he was an exceptional golfer from an early age, earning a golf scholarship to Arizona State University where he won 11 college golf tournaments before graduating in 2016 (second only to Phil Mickelson, who recorded 16 wins at ASU). He waited to turn pro until the conclusion of the 2016 US Open, having received an invitation to compete as the #1 ranked amateur in the world, and recorded a top 25 finish. The following week he finished 3^rd at the Quicken Loans National Tournament, gaining an invitation to The Open at Royal Troon where he made the cut, and followed that up with a runner-up finish at the Canadian Open the very next week. Adding two top 15 finishes in the fall secured his tour card, and Rahm exploded onto the golf scene in January 2017 with a remarkable come from behind victory at the Farmers Insurance Open (Torrey Pines–against a powerhouse field). He continued his success, recording four more wins between 2018 and 2020, and then took home the U.S. Open title in 2021, where he fired a final round 67 to defeat Louis Oosthuizen on the difficult South Course at Torre Pines. And with two Ryder Cups under his belt already, expect Rahm to be a pillar of the European team for many years to come. To get close to the bar set by Jack and Tiger however, Rahm will need to pick up his pace quite a bit with at least fifteen more wins and four or five major titles in the next few years. It can be done though, since he won’t turn 30 until November of 2024, giving him 3 more full seasons to beef up his record. Jack won 19 times from 1971-1973, and Tiger recorded 22 wins between 1999 and 2001. The problem is that Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy are still in their prime, along with a host of youthful superstars who also want to make their mark on the game.

Collin Morikawa (24 years old/No. 2 in the World Rankings)

When talking about young guns on the PGA Tour, Collin Morikawa jumps right to the top of the list. Known for precision iron play, Morikawa evokes images of Johnny Miller at the top of his game. When you add his accuracy off the tee and a beautiful putting stroke, the possibilities are unlimited. Morikawa was born in Los Angeles, California. Like Rahm, Morikawa started playing golf very early and proved himself to be a talent. He received a golf scholarship to play at the University of California, Berkley, where he excelled on the collegiate golf stage, winning numerous amateur championships and rising to #1 in the World Amateur Golf rankings in 2018. After graduating from college in 2019, Morikawa turned professional and immediately recorded a top 15 finish at the Canadian Open after receiving a sponsor’s exemption (a field that included Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson). The following week he made the cut at the US Open (held at Pebble Beach), closing with a final round 69. He then finished runner up at the 3M Open, recorded a top 5 at the John Deere Classic the very next week, and secured his card for the 2020 season by winning the Barracuda Championship. After making the cut in all nine of the tournaments he entered in 2019, Morikawa started the 2020 season by making the cut in his first 11 events before the season was put on hold due to COVID 19. When the season resumed, Morikawa recorded a runner up at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the 21^st consecutive cut he had made from the start of his PGA career, with a chance to challenge Tiger’s record of 25. Unfortunately, his streak ended at 22 with a missed cut two weeks later at the Travelers, but Morikawa wasted no time with what might have been, and notched a second tour win two weeks later in a playoff with Justin Thomas (the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village). The following month Morikawa won the PGA Championship, his first major title, firing a final round 64 (tying Steve Elkington’s record for lowest final round at the PGA) and ended the season with a sixth-place finish at the Tour Championship. The 2021 season was even more spectacular, as Morikawa added two more wins, including his second major title at the Open Championship, a top 5 at the US Open, top 10 at the PGA Championship and a top 20 at the Masters. With 5 wins including 2 majors under his belt already, and six full seasons before he will turn 30, Morikawa has plenty of time to make Tiger and Jack take a serious look over their shoulder.

Justin Thomas (28 Years old/No. 7 in the World Golf Rankings)

It may come as a surprise that Justin Thomas is still in his twenties, since he made his first appearance on the PGA tour way back in 2009. Thomas was just sixteen years old, and still in high school, when he teed it up at the Wyndham Championship, where he opened with a first round 65 and made the cut. Born in Louisville, Kentucky, he was taught the game almost as soon as he could walk by is his father, Mike Thomas, the head golf professional at Harmony Landing Country Club. In 2012, as a sophomore at the University of Alabama, Thomas received the Haskins Award as the outstanding college golfer of the year, and opted to join the PGA Tour in 2013, after Alabama won the National Championship. He recorded his first tour victory in 2015 (the CIMB Classic), and added 13 more titles over the next five years, including a major (2017 PGA Championship) and the Players Championship in 2021. Known for his length off the tee, Thomas can roll it on the green as well (ranked 5^th in putting in 2017 while recording 5 wins). He only has one more full year in his twenties though, so 2022 needs to be a big one for him if he wants to keep Tiger and Jack in his sights. Keep in mind that Vijay Singh won nine times in ’04, and with his power and putting stroke, Thomas can most definitely make a statement.

Stay tuned as we next look at Bryson DeChambeau (28 years old/No. 13 in the world), Jordan Spieth (28 years old/No. 15 in the world, and Patrick Cantley (29 years old/No. 4 in the world).

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